Berenberg doubts China

The growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China, the second largest world economy, slowed in the third quarter of the year to 6%, which represents the slower rate of expansion of the Asian giant since 1992.

China’s GDP registers its lowest level in the last 27 years
In addition, the data was one tenth below the forecast of 6.1% established by the market consensus in the midst of the trade war with the US. Beijing manages a growth forecast of between 6% and 6.5% for 2019, lower than the 6.5% target set for last year.

“We must be aware that, given the complicated and severe economic conditions both in the country and abroad, the slowdown in global economic growth and the increase in external instability and uncertainty, the economy is under increasing downward pressure” , warned the National Statistical Office of China.

However, even the official 6% figure has been questioned by the market. “The 6% growth gives continuity to a perfect scenario, of slow but robust deceleration and without fluctuations, which is neither a precise nor possible measure of the performance of the real economy,” argue the experts of the investment firm Berenberg. According to their assessment, “current growth is smoother than the official 6% figure.”

The monthly data for September showed an uptick in retail sales and industrial production from much weaker trends. But, in reality, they claim, China is struggling with its transition to dependence on consumption and domestic demand, an increasingly burdensome debt and a manufacturing sector weighed down by the drop in exports.

As in the whole year 2019 in the euro zone the weak economy continues. The growth of the euro zone Read more

Bad economic data published this Monday, January 13 in Great Britain. Quarterly GDP shows a 0.3% drop. It also shows Read more

China that aspires to be number 1 will suffer for its lies. I acknowledge that I am not a fan Read more

‘Value investing’ has entered a phase of decline. The coronavirus crisis has left important lessons for investors. Portfolio diversification does Read more

Slow and risky recovery. "The recovery in the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will largely depend on our success in Read more

1.3 billion euros of economic stimulus for Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition agreed on an economic stimulus package on Read more

Governments want to solve this crisis with more debt, more taxes and assistance to the zombie sectors of the economy. Read more

According to official government data, Chinese industrial production grew in April. Output from China's factories increased for the first time Read more

After a month of pandemic and still with many doubts the world economy stopped. I have been a few days Read more

Stopping the economy is the European solution, a major disaster. As I have shown well in other opinion articles, I Read more