I found this CNN article in Spanish, in my opinion very successful that I repeat here and talk about second half forecasts for 2019
(CNN Spanish) – We have already entered the second half of 2019, and investors want to know what will be the winds that will move the markets in the last half of 2019, so we have dedicated GloboEconomía this week to do that exercise with the help of Victoria Gaytan, a contributor to Fortune magazine and director of the Global Americans Program.
And, well, what has come to us is that the global slowdown and its greater or lesser intensity, largely determined by the impact of Trump’s trade wars, will continue to occupy the place of honor. What will happen in the coming months in the markets will have everything to do with the more or less that this deceleration is deepened, which largely has its origin in the loss of bellows in China.
If the Chinese economy continues to lose pace, other major powers, especially those that export more to that country, will undoubtedly be touched. Japan and Germany are at the top of the list, but there are many more. So, first of all, a lot of attention to the intensity that this deceleration may have.
The second definitive wind is “what the central banks of the world can do”. A lot of focus especially on the Federal Reserve. We have been anticipating a cut in interest rates by the US central bank for months and, according to a majority of analysts, that step could take place on July 31.
The problem is that for an important sector of analysis that cut, even if justified by the prevention of precisely the impact that this global slowdown may have on the US economy, is difficult to explain, when the economy still has a Good growth rate.
And, finally, we must definitely focus on the winds that have to do with geopolitics, and specifically with the already running election campaign for the 2020 presidential elections in the US. The market does not usually like to be moved by politics, but as the months go by that wind is not going to be avoided.