After President Trump comes Biden
Now that Donald Trump is no longer president, it is time to evaluate his presidency. And my opinion is that he has been a bad president, for having questioned the democratic elections, for not accepting the result and for straining the institutions. You have to accept defeats in an elegant way, something that has been lacking.
Trump came to the presidency with the idea of being an outsider, without commitment to any influence group. Someone outside of power, clean of any influence, and his voters had the idea that he would be someone who would give a fresh air to the government and who would do things that other presidents have not dared. But it is the desire to see something new that caused him to be elected president. In addition, every democratic system is designed so that moderate people govern, at the time when extremist people govern the institutions are compromised and there is a feeling of misrule.
With Trump we have seen that he has wanted to do things his way, but a government is made up of thousands of officials and positions of trust, which must be filled by the right people for everything to work properly.
At the economic level, we have seen, before COVID-19, an economy growing, but with constant stimuli, which have caused the Fed to no longer have stimulus tools, such as a dangerous deficit. Of course, with the stock market at record highs. But the real economy does not understand the stock market, in fact the stock market should be a reflection of the real economy, and yet the stock market is at its highest and the real economy is not.
And, for me, the success of Trump, foreign policy. As much as it hurts some, the renegotiation of the USMCA treaties and, above all, the sanctions against China. China’s economic boom has not been followed by the freedom of the Chinese people, but rather by disrespect for the Hong Kong treaties and China’s aggressiveness towards all its neighbors. This assumes that today all of China’s neighbors are allies of the United States, in particular India, Japan and Taiwan. And the beginning of the technological blockade of China, which has already led to the fall of the Huawei company, which will be followed by others.
And it is that for me, the year 2020 has marked the beginning of the fall of China, largely due to the impulse of Trump, for the following reasons:
- Hong Kong is no longer an economic center, this will be seen in the medium term.
- No access of Chinese companies to US chip technology. Which means that Chinese tech companies will have to develop their own chips (unfeasible).
- US military protection for Taiwan.
- Western blockade of China’s 5G technology.
- Arms race against the US and its allies (Australia, Japan, India, Europe). What allies does China have?
- The West is convinced that China is not a trustworthy country, which will gradually mean the transfer of factories from China to other countries.
Ultimately, Trump’s presidency has been a presidency with some light and many shadows.